As the latest round of UNFCCC climate negotiations finish up in Bonn this week, progress has been made in some areas and not in others. (Check back here for a wrap up once the session concludes.) One thing that has definitely progressed, however, is the amount of affected area covered by the ever-expanding BP oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico.

The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases trajectory forecast maps once a day predicting the extent and concentration of the oil near the shore of the Gulf of Mexico. This week, NOAA released a trajectory map with a forecast up to 130 days (4+ months) after the accident. Chillingly, the modelling shows the spill heading straight toward Europe... 

The NOAA's projections are based on sophisticated computer models using currents, winds and observations. According to the NOAA, "Oil on the water is moved by currents and winds. Using currents and winds predictions from a variety of sources, as well as available observations, the NOAA oceanographers run several leading computer models to forecast the movement and spreading of the oil. They also use satellite imagery analysis and observations reported by trained observers who have made helicopter overflights back and forth across the potentially affected area, recording locations where oil is seen."