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Russia became the most crucial player in the countdown for entry into force. Since Poland and Canada had joined the Kyoto Club, ratification by Russia ensured entry into force. The government officially pledged its support to the Protocol on a number of occassions, but no definite date was known for years. Russian ratification November 2004 in the end enabled entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol on February 16 2005. Some of the history of the long wait for Russian ratification until 2003Disappointingly vague text has emerged from the Russia-EU summit in Rome (6th November 2003). Included in the Joint Press Statement is this statement. "We recognised our responsibility to tackle together and in the framework of relevant international organisations, instruments and fora, common environmental challenges and shared concerns regarding climate change and transport safety." (source) President Putin led the international media reporting on the fate of the Kyoto Protocol through a roller-coaster ride in October 2003. First he cast doubts over Russia's stance with his open and vague statement at the Moscow Climate Change Conference, but then he said in an interview "I believe that ratification and making the Kyoto Protocol effective would be a step in the right direction" (source). Putin also told his counterparts from Canada and France at an Asia-Pacific meeting in Bangkok that ratification was just a matter of time (source). To journalists, he said problems would ratehr lie with the Duma. However, “we want to do it, and we will move in this direction”. (source) The relevant ministeries have submitted all necessary documents to the government, which now needs to submit the issue to the Duma. Moscow is taking its time for this crucial step, though and considers linking the ratification of Kyoto with compromises on its accession to the WTO. The State Council (Gossovet), an advisory body to the President in which he also acts as a chairman, bringing together the governers of Russia's 89 regions, concluded at its meeting early June 2003 that the government should ratify the Kyoto Protocol, and President Putin said on national television the same evening he wanted to see a decision by September. In early July, vice Premier Victor Khristenko in an interview with Russian newspaper Rossiiskaya gazeta, that the Protocol would give a bosst to Russia's economy. In a joint statement following the EU-Russia summit on 31st May October 2003, President Putin and EU leaders declared that "We agreed to make every necessary effort to ensure that the Kyoto Protocol becomes a real tool for solving the problems of global warming and to this end we shall seek its entry into force as soon as possible". The necessary formal process was launched back on the 11th of April 2002, with a decision by the Russian government to cabinet (read the WWF Press Release ). This process asked for a report from the Economics Ministry on the impacts of implementation. This was finalised in autumn 2002. It was meant to be presented to the Cabinet in autumn and to the Duma later in the year or early 2003, but got postponed due to more pressing issues being considered by the Cabinet first. As long as the Duma receives the ratification bill by the end of spring 2003, entry into force in time for the next COnference of the Parties (CoP-9), scheduled for December 2003, is still possible. It is about time Russia took up some pace and sped up its process, in order not to let the overwhelming majority of countries wait for the Protocol's "kiss of life". The European Union is engaging in closer co-operation with Russia on environmental issues. In December 2001, it released a communication with details on this process (Commission webpage). The ninth EU-Russia summit took place in Moscow on the 29th of May 2002. In the concluding statement, signed by President Putin, Spanish Premier Aznar, EU Foreign Affairs Deputy Solana and Commission President Prodi, it was reemphasised that, "environmental aspects of the Russia-EU relations are taking concrete shape (...). We will make every necessary effort to ensure that the Kyoto Protocol becomes a real tool for solving the problems of global warming as soon as possible. We also confirm our readiness to cooperate closely in preparing the World Conference on climate change to be held in Russia in 2003." (emphasis added) (source). At the WSSD in Johannesburg in Septmeber 2002, Russia also officially reiterated its commitment to ratification. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov announced at the Earth Summit on September 4th that Moscow hoped to ratify the Kyoto Protocol "in the very near future." This was confirmed again by President Putin on the same day.
How Russia could bring the climate treaty alive and secure much needed investment Especially important in this context are investments in the energy sector which produces 70% of greenhouse gas emissions. At present, conditions of the Russian energy sector are not very favourable, and that reality is widely recognised. Fuel leaks, energy efficiency losses, and pollution from existing power plants could all be improved. The new Russian Energy Strategy, which is currently still under consideration in the Russian government, stresses the fact that the energy sector in Russia needs millions of dollars in investment to secure a reliable and efficient energy production for domestic consumption and export. Joining the Kyoto Protocol will open the door to participation in the socalled “flexible mechanisms” the treaty provides, and these will help Russia to get additional investments. As Russia is likely to stay well below its Kyoto target line agreed in 1997, the excess emission allowances could be sold on the international market, to other industrialized countries that have not achieved the necessary reductions. And via the project-based mechanism “Joint Implementation”, foreign direct investment could be used to the same effect. These benefits are often missed by people less well acquainted with the climate treaty process. Joining the Protocol will bring about an intensified collaboration with Kyoto countries Japan, Canada and the European Union, especially in the energy sector. President Putin has identified the importance of this agreement with important trading partners and declared his intention to ratify the Protocol. At present, however, the approval of the Duma is needed first, to allow the President to go ahead. There are a number of gains to reap, if Russia ratifies the Protocol. However, more than just signing a document will be required. First of all, the issue needs more attention in the Duma and higher levels of government and also in industry. A number of institutions will have to be put in place, for example for greenhous gas emissions inventories, and also for the processing of project applications. There is already a strong, high-level commitment from Russia to follow this path, but what is needed now is an informed discussion and swift adoption of the Protocol in the Duma.
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