Who is still missing?

One of the most important questions surrounding entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol was keeping up-to-date with the current "score", as regards the two numerical criteria which had to be met (see our introduction for more). As the first condition (a minimum of 55 countries becoming a Party to the treaty)was fulfilled since Iceland's ratification on 23rd May 2002, and now Russian ratification has fulfilled condition number two: 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions from Annex-I (industrialised) countries. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16 2005! Current score: 161 Parties (see official list as of 14 February 2006)

Example calculation (in chronological order)
Share of 1990
Sum
2001 ratifications (Romania and Czech Republic)

2.48

2.48

Iceland (23rd May)

0.02

2.50

Norway (30th May)

0.26

2.76

0.42

3.18

24.23

27.41

Japan (4th June)

8.55

35.96

Latvia (5th July)
0.17

36.13

Bulgaria (15th August)
0.60
36.73
Hungary (21st August)
0.52

37.25

Estonia (14th October)

0.28

37.53
Poland (13th December 2002)

3.02

40.55
Canada (17th December 2002)
3.33
43.88
New Zealand (19th December 2002)
0.19
44.07
Switzerland (Mid 2003)
0.32
44.39
Russia (November 2004)

17.40

61.79 now!

> 55

Currently the score is at 61.79%, as you can see in the table to the left. That means the emissions required for entry into force have been met. After Poland's and Canada's ratification in December 2002, Russia's share now brings the total to over 60%, thus fulfilling the second criterion by a large margin.

Australia and the USA remain unlikely to change their mind in the near future, joining the ranks of international climate heavy-weight Monaco as the only other Annex-I country not to have ratified.

The figures for this table were taken from the official UNFCCC document. Below you will find the original data for all countries that count for the 55% threshold.

All the numbers: table with emission figures and shares from the official Kyoto Protocol document FCCC/CP/1997/7/Add.1, 18 March 1998

The percentage shares have been calculated from the original total amounts and rounded to two decimal places instead of the one decimal place the UNFCCC uses to show (see table below). That is why the sum given here differs from the amount specified as the current score in the official list (available here in pdf). However, we consider this method to be more accurate in the light of the text of the Kyoto Protocol.

Annex

Table: Total carbon dioxide emissions of Annex I Parties in 1990, for the purposes of Article 25 of the Kyoto Protocol *

Party Emissions(Gg) Percentage

Australia

288,965

2.1

Austria

59,200

0.4

Belgium

113,405

0.8

Bulgaria

82,990

0.6

Canada

457,441

3.3

Czech Republic

169,514

1.2

Denmark

52,100

0.4

Estonia

37,797

0.3

Finland

53,900

0.4

France

366,536

2.7

Germany

1,012,443

7.4

Greece

82,100

0.6

Hungary

71,673

0.5

Iceland

2,172

0.0

Ireland

30,719

0.2

Italy

428,941

3.1

Japan

1,173,360

8.5

Latvia

22,976

0.2

Liechtenstein

208

0.0

Luxembourg

11,343

0.1

Monaco

71

0.0

Netherlands

167,600

1.2

NewZealand

25,530

0.2

Norway

35,533

0.3

Poland

414,930

3.0

Portugal

42,148

0.3

Romania

171,103

1.2

Russian Federation

2,388,720

17.4

Slovakia

58,278

0.4

Spain

260,654

1.9

Sweden

61,256

0.4

Switzerland

43,600

0.3

United Kingdom

584,078

4.3

United States of America

4,957,022

36.1

Total (31 out of 34 have ratified)

13,728,306

100.0

For a more detailed account of the theoretically possible scenarios of how the Protocol could enter into force, please download the Greenpeace Analysis (pdf) by Bill Hare.

*Data based on the information from the 34 Annex I Parties that submitted their first national communications on or before 11 December 1997, as compiled by the secretariat in several documents (A/AC.237/81; FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2 and FCCC/SB/1997/6). Some of the communications included data on CO2 emissions by sources and removals by sinks from land-use change and forestry, but since different ways of reporting were used these data are not included.SOURCE: UNFCCC

More on emission data: Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol