| Who is still missing?
One of the most important questions surrounding entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol was keeping up-to-date with the current "score", as regards the two numerical criteria which had to be met (see our introduction for more). As the first condition (a minimum of 55 countries becoming a Party to the treaty)was fulfilled since Iceland's ratification on 23rd May 2002, and now Russian ratification has fulfilled condition number two: 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions from Annex-I (industrialised) countries. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16 2005! Current score: 161 Parties (see official list as of 14 February 2006)
Example calculation (in chronological order) |
Share of 1990 |
Sum |
|
2.48 |
2.48 |
Iceland (23rd May) |
0.02 |
2.50 |
|
0.26 |
2.76 |
|
0.42 |
3.18 |
|
24.23 |
27.41 |
|
8.55 |
35.96 |
|
0.17 |
36.13 |
|
0.60 |
36.73 |
|
0.52 |
37.25 |
|
0.28 |
37.53 |
|
3.02 |
40.55 |
|
3.33 |
43.88 |
|
0.19 |
44.07 |
|
0.32 |
44.39 |
|
17.40 |
61.79 now!
> 55 |
|
Currently the score is at 61.79%, as you can see in the table to the left. That means the emissions required for entry into force have been met. After Poland's and Canada's ratification in December 2002, Russia's share now brings the total to over 60%, thus fulfilling the second criterion by a large margin.
Australia and the USA remain unlikely to change their mind in the near future, joining the ranks of international climate heavy-weight Monaco as the only other Annex-I country not to have ratified. |
The figures for this table were taken from the official UNFCCC document. Below you will find the original data for all countries that count for the 55% threshold.
All the numbers: table with emission figures and shares from the official Kyoto Protocol document FCCC/CP/1997/7/Add.1, 18 March 1998
The percentage shares have been calculated from the original total amounts and rounded to two decimal places instead of the one decimal place the UNFCCC uses to show (see table below). That is why the sum given here differs from the amount specified as the current score in the official list (available here in pdf). However, we consider this method to be more accurate in the light of the text of the Kyoto Protocol.
Annex
Table: Total carbon dioxide emissions of Annex I Parties in 1990, for the purposes of Article 25 of the Kyoto Protocol *
| Party |
Emissions(Gg) |
Percentage |
Australia |
288,965 |
2.1 |
Austria |
59,200 |
0.4 |
Belgium |
113,405 |
0.8 |
Bulgaria |
82,990 |
0.6 |
Canada |
457,441 |
3.3 |
Czech Republic |
169,514 |
1.2 |
Denmark |
52,100 |
0.4 |
Estonia |
37,797 |
0.3 |
Finland |
53,900 |
0.4 |
France |
366,536 |
2.7 |
Germany |
1,012,443 |
7.4 |
Greece |
82,100 |
0.6 |
Hungary |
71,673 |
0.5 |
Iceland |
2,172 |
0.0 |
Ireland |
30,719 |
0.2 |
Italy |
428,941 |
3.1 |
Japan |
1,173,360 |
8.5 |
Latvia |
22,976 |
0.2 |
Liechtenstein |
208 |
0.0 |
Luxembourg |
11,343 |
0.1 |
Monaco |
71 |
0.0 |
Netherlands |
167,600 |
1.2 |
NewZealand |
25,530 |
0.2 |
Norway |
35,533 |
0.3 |
Poland |
414,930 |
3.0 |
Portugal |
42,148 |
0.3 |
Romania |
171,103 |
1.2 |
Russian Federation |
2,388,720 |
17.4 |
Slovakia |
58,278 |
0.4 |
Spain |
260,654 |
1.9 |
Sweden |
61,256 |
0.4 |
Switzerland |
43,600 |
0.3 |
United Kingdom |
584,078 |
4.3 |
United States of America |
4,957,022 |
36.1 |
Total (31 out of 34 have ratified) |
13,728,306 |
100.0 |
For a more detailed account of the theoretically possible scenarios of how the Protocol could enter into force, please download the Greenpeace Analysis (pdf) by Bill Hare.
*Data based on the information from the 34 Annex I Parties that submitted their first national communications on or before 11 December 1997, as compiled by the secretariat in several documents (A/AC.237/81; FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2 and FCCC/SB/1997/6). Some of the communications included data on CO2 emissions by sources and removals by sinks from land-use change and forestry, but since different ways of reporting were used these data are not included.SOURCE: UNFCCC
More on emission data: Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol
|